One Point, Three Games: What Caruana vs So Means for the U.S. Championship

Photo: Frans Peeters / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Eight rounds are done, three are left, and the top two players in the U.S. Championship meet on Monday. Wesley So has 6 points out of 8. Fabiano Caruana has 5. On Monday, 19 October, Caruana has the white pieces against So in Round 9 at the Saint Louis Chess Club. Play starts at noon, Saint Louis time.

Sunday is a rest day, so here is what is at stake, how the two have played this week, and what happened the last time they met with a title on the line.

Two champions, eight rounds in

Caruana is the defending champion. He has won the U.S. Championship five times: in 2016, and every year from 2022 to 2025. So has won it three times, in 2017, 2020 and 2021. Between them, they have won eight of the last ten titles.

So is the only player in the field who has not lost a game. He has four wins and four draws. His last two wins, against Ray Robson and Andy Woodward, both came in endgames. On Friday he won a bishop ending against Robson in 92 moves, and on Saturday he broke through in a pawn ending against Woodward.

Caruana has three wins, four draws and one loss. The loss came in Round 5, when Woodward beat him with a passed pawn and a breakthrough. Since then, he has beaten Sam Shankland and drawn with Hans Niemann and Sam Sevian.

The last time: the American Cup final in March

So and Caruana met in March, in the Champions Final of the American Cup, also in Saint Louis. It was a two-game match with long games, 90 minutes each plus 30 seconds a move. Each player won with White, so they went to a blitz playoff, where each side has only three minutes plus two seconds a move.

Caruana won the first game in 58 moves. He finished with a rook, an extra pawn and a passed h-pawn, a pawn that no enemy pawn can stop.

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American Cup, game 1, after 58.Rxb6. White has an extra pawn, and the h-pawn on h5 is far away from the black king. So resigned here.

Analyze this position

So won the second game in 68 moves, and the ending is worth a close look. After the rooks came off with 59...Rxc5 60.bxc5, each side had one bishop, and the bishops moved on different colors. Endings like that are often drawn, because each bishop can guard squares the other can never attack. Here it was different. White's c-pawn was passed, and White also had a pawn on the f-file on the other side of the board. The black bishop could not guard both sides at once, and our Stockfish 17.1 engine rates this position as winning for White.

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American Cup, game 2, after 60.bxc5. Bishops on different colors, but White has pawns on both sides of the board. Black to move.

Analyze this position

The first blitz game was drawn. In the second, So had Black, and he won with a neat idea.

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American Cup, blitz game 2, after 39.Rc4. Black to move. The pawn on d3 has only one defender: the knight on e1.

Analyze this position

So played 39...f3+. The pawn gave check, and Caruana took it with 40.Nxf3. But now the knight no longer guarded d3, and So took the pawn with 40...Rxd3. Pulling a defender away like this is called deflection. Five moves later, Caruana resigned, and So went on to win the whole American Cup.

Who plays whom

• Wesley So: Caruana (Black) on Monday, Hans Niemann (White) on Tuesday, Sam Sevian (Black) on Wednesday.
• Fabiano Caruana: So (White) on Monday, Jeffery Xiong (Black) on Tuesday, Awonder Liang (White) on Wednesday.

Four players are tied for third with 4.5 points: Liang, Grigoriy Oparin, Woodward and Xiong. Caruana still has to play two of them.

What each result would mean

• If So wins, he has 7 and Caruana stays on 5, with two rounds left. Caruana could then only catch him, not pass him, and only if So lost both of his last games. One more point from his last two games would make So sure of first place.
• If they draw, So has 6.5 and Caruana 5.5. So keeps his one-point lead. To be sure of first place on his own, he would then need 1.5 points from his last two games.
• If Caruana wins, both players have 6 with two rounds left, and the race starts again.

What if there is a tie for first after Round 11? The rules say the tied players play a playoff on Thursday, 22 October. Two players would start with two rapid games, each with 15 minutes plus 10 seconds a move. If that is still tied, they play two more rapid games, and then blitz. In March, So beat Caruana in a blitz playoff.

The Women's Championship: Lee and Li, side by side

The U.S. Women's Championship has two leaders. Alice Lee, 17, and Rachael Li, 16, both have 6 points out of 8, with five wins and one loss each. In Round 6 they played each other, and Li won with the black pieces to end Lee's winning run.

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Lee vs Li, Round 6, after 60...Rb4. Black has four pawns and White has none. Lee resigned here.

Analyze this position

Thalia Cervantes is half a point behind with 5.5, and Irina Krush has 5. Their paths to the finish are very different:

• Alice Lee: Krush (Black), Cervantes (White), Anna Sargsyan (Black). She plays both of the players right behind her.
• Rachael Li: Nazí Paikidze (White), Rose Atwell (White), Anna Zatonskih (Black).
• Thalia Cervantes: Jennifer Yu, Lee, Megan Paragua.

So on Monday, Lee faces Krush while Li plays Paikidze. On Tuesday, Lee plays Cervantes. Any of those games could change the order at the top.

What happened to Carissa Yip

Carissa Yip came to Saint Louis as the four-time defending champion, with titles in 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025. She was the top-rated player in the women's field. After eight rounds she has 2 points, from one win, two draws and five losses, and she is in last place.

Her losses came against Megan Paragua in Round 2, Tatev Abrahamyan in Round 3, Rose Atwell in Round 5, Irina Krush in Round 7 and Thalia Cervantes in Round 8. Her win was against Anna Zatonskih in Round 6, and she drew with both of today's leaders, Lee in Round 1 and Li in Round 4. We covered four of those losses: One Square Away against Paragua, A Pawn on e6 against Abrahamyan, Atwell's exchange sacrifice and, on Saturday, Cervantes's checkmate on a1.

Every player has bad weeks, even champions. Yip has three games left: Sargsyan, Paikidze and Yu.

What to watch on Monday

1. Colors matter. On Monday So has Black. In March, the long game Caruana won was the one where he had White.

2. A draw keeps So in front. It would leave him a point clear with two rounds left. Only a win brings Caruana level.

3. Watch the endgames. So has won his last two games in long endings, and he beat Caruana in an ending in March. If the game reaches an ending, watch for passed pawns and active kings.

Read more: Alice Lee at 17 and Rachael Li's debut win over Krush.